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Notable Labs, Ltd. (NTBL)·Q3 2023 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2023 reflected a transition quarter: results reported are for pre‑merger Vascular Biogenics Ltd. (VBL) with zero revenue and a sharply lower net loss year over year; the company closed its merger with Notable on Oct 16 and began trading as NTBL on Oct 17, 2023 (combined company cash $14.3M as of Oct 31) .
  • Operating discipline drove materially lower R&D and G&A vs prior year, narrowing the quarterly net loss to $1.07M from $9.17M YoY; sequentially, net loss rose modestly given lower quarter‑end cash and legal spend around the merger .
  • No earnings call transcript or formal financial guidance was provided for Q3; management cited sufficient cash resources for “at least the next 12 months” post‑merger while noting the need for additional capital to advance programs longer term .
  • Potential near‑term narrative catalysts included anticipated fosciclopirox Phase 2a AML data by year‑end 2023 (subsequently disclosed Dec 18), and forthcoming pro forma combined financial information (referenced to be provided later in November) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Cost structure tightened: Net loss for Q3 2023 was $1.07M vs $9.17M in Q3 2022, driven by large declines in R&D and G&A after program wind‑downs and workforce reductions .
  • Nasdaq compliance resolved post‑merger: On Oct 19, 2023, Nasdaq confirmed the company had met initial listing requirements, closing the prior minimum bid price deficiency matter .
  • Platform validation narrative: In a Dec 18 update, management stated PPMP “accomplished its goal” in the fosciclopirox Phase 2a by accurately predicting all enrolled patients would be non‑responsive—positioning PPMP for front‑end trial design and selective enrollment (quote: “These PPMP results indicate that the enrolled patient population was biased towards non‑responsiveness…”) .

What Went Wrong

  • No revenue; legacy license revenues lapsed post NanoCarrier termination, and no product sales exist at this stage—Q3 2023 revenue was $0 (vs $0.48M in Q3 2022) .
  • Fosciclopirox efficacy in R/R AML Phase 2a was negative in evaluable patients (0 complete responses among 9 evaluable), underscoring the need for PPMP‑guided enrollment in future work .
  • Liquidity runway remains limited: cash and equivalents declined to $20.8M at 9/30 (VBL) and $14.3M at 10/31 (post‑merger), with management indicating further funding will be required to develop and commercialize candidates beyond the near term .

Financial Results

Note: Q3 2023 financials reflect pre‑merger VBL. EPS comparability across quarters is impacted by the 1‑for‑35 reverse share split effected Oct 16, 2023; Q3 figures include retroactive adjustment only for periods presented within that filing (Q3 2023/Q3 2022) .

MetricQ1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q3 2022
Revenues ($USD Thousands)$0 $0 $0 $481
Research & Development Expense, net ($USD Thousands)$56 $(1,546) $(686) $5,947
General & Administrative Expense ($USD Thousands)$3,239 $1,873 $1,847 $3,746
Operating Loss ($USD Thousands)$2,687 $863 $1,004 $9,275
Net Loss ($USD Thousands)$2,639 $874 $1,067 $9,170
EPS, Basic & Diluted ($)$0.03 $0.01 $0.48 $4.13

KPIs and Liquidity

MetricQ1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Subsequent
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Thousands)$26,094 (3/31) $24,264 (6/30) $20,768 (9/30) $14,300 (10/31, post‑merger)
Net Cash Used in Operating Activities YTD ($USD Thousands)$(1,688) (3M) $(4,050) (6M) $(7,640) (9M)
Shares Outstanding (Period End)69,750,117 (pre‑split) 70,500,117 (pre‑split) 9,001,320 (post‑split as of 11/7)

Estimates vs. Actuals

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q3 2023 revenue and EPS were unavailable for NTBL at the time of our query (missing CIQ mapping). As a result, we cannot present a beat/miss analysis for the quarter. Values, if provided, would be retrieved from S&P Global; consensus was unavailable at this time.*

Guidance Changes

No quantitative financial guidance (revenue, margins, opex, tax rate, or dividends) was issued for Q3. Management provided qualitative updates on liquidity and milestones.

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance/CommentaryChange
Cash runwayNext 12 monthsNot specified“Cash and investments provide sufficient resources to fund operations through at least the next 12 months” (post‑merger) New qualitative commentary
Fosciclopirox Phase 2a data2023Not specifiedSafety/efficacy data anticipated before year‑end 2023 (stated Nov 14; results press released Dec 18) New milestone timing

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

(No Q3 2023 earnings call transcript was found; themes compiled from 10‑Q/8‑K press materials.)

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2023)Current Period (Q3 2023)Trend
Strategic transaction/mergerMerger with Notable announced; conditions and reverse split contemplated Merger closed Oct 16; began trading as NTBL Oct 17 Completed; integration focus
R&D program focusLegacy ofra‑vec discontinued; VB‑601 to be monetized; lower R&D spend VB‑601 asset sale completed Oct 16; R&D net expense negative/low due to grants and reversals De‑risked cost base; pipeline reset
PPMP (platform)Background platform described (Notable) in merger context Platform central to combined strategy; later validated prospectively in fosciclopirox AML (Dec 18) Increasing emphasis/validation
Liquidity/runwayCash $26.1M (Q1), $24.3M (Q2); reviewing options Cash $20.8M (Q3 VBL); $14.3M post‑merger as of 10/31; “at least 12 months” runway; need more capital for development Adequate near‑term; funding need ahead
Listing statusAddressing Nasdaq minimum bid deficiency; planning reverse split Nasdaq confirms compliance Oct 19 post‑merger Resolved
Regulatory/milestonesVB‑601 asset sale proposed VB‑601 asset sale completed; Phase 2a fosciclopirox data timing disclosed Transaction executed; data timing set

Management Commentary

  • “The successful outcome prediction means that Notable’s PPMP platform accomplished its goal in this trial. These data further corroborate and extend our four independent PPMP validation trials…” — Thomas Bock, CEO .
  • “Once our PPMP team merged the blinded PPMP and clinical data, we observed that the patients’ PPMP‑predicted non‑responsiveness to fosciclopirox was accurate… suggest[ing] PPMP should be advanced to the front‑end of clinical development programs…” — Joseph Wagner, PhD, CSO .
  • As of Oct 31, 2023, cash and cash equivalents were $14.3M (post‑merger); pro forma combined information to be provided later in November .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q3 2023 earnings call transcript was available; therefore, no Q&A highlights or additional guidance clarifications can be provided from a call record. We searched for “earnings‑call‑transcript” documents for NTBL within the quarter and found none [ListDocuments result: 0].

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for revenue and EPS for Q1–Q3 2023; however, a Capital IQ mapping for NTBL was not available, preventing retrieval. As such, a formal beat/miss analysis versus Wall Street consensus cannot be provided for Q3 2023 at this time. Values, if provided, would be retrieved from S&P Global; consensus was unavailable at this time.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Transition quarter with materially reduced losses and de‑risked cost base ahead of the Oct 16 merger; the combined entity is now focused on PPMP‑guided oncology development (see Financial Results table; merger completion) .
  • Liquidity is sufficient for “at least 12 months,” but additional capital will be required for later‑stage development and commercialization; funding strategy (equity, debt, partnerships) is a medium‑term focus .
  • Platform narrative strengthened: PPMP accurately predicted non‑response in fosciclopirox Phase 2a AML, supporting a PPMP‑enriched design to avoid enrolling non‑responders in future trials .
  • Listing overhang removed: Nasdaq confirmed compliance post‑merger, reducing technical risk and facilitating potential capital markets access .
  • Near‑term catalysts include prospective PPMP‑enriched study designs and any subsequent program updates following the Dec 18 PPMP/fosciclopirox disclosure; watch for further pro forma financial disclosures and pipeline prioritization .

References:

  • Q3 2023 8‑K (Item 2.02) and press release summary, including merger timing and pro forma disclosure plans .
  • Q3 2023 10‑Q financials and MD&A, including reverse split, cash, expenses, liquidity outlook, and Nasdaq update .
  • Q2 2023 and Q1 2023 10‑Qs for prior‑quarter comparatives .
  • Dec 18, 2023 8‑K press release on PPMP and fosciclopirox Phase 2a AML study .

*Estimates disclaimer: Consensus values would be sourced from S&P Global; consensus was unavailable at this time due to missing CIQ mapping for NTBL.